Although a decline in food inflation is under way, any notion that prices will revert to levels we grew accustomed to over a decade up to 2020 seems fanciful
While input costs have fallen significantly in recent months as global markets factored the war in Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia into their pricing models, many remain high compared to what we became used to.
The harsh consequences of climate change and the damaging impact on key parts of the food production chain will come into sharper focus in the years ahead. Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine shows no sign of being resolved and pressures are evident across the world.
International volatility will continue to be reflected in higher input costs and higher prices for consumers in Ireland. Industry experts speculate that the best we can hope for is grocery inflation of 3 per cent per annum over the next five years. There are two major policy implications here. The first is responding to climate change, both by considering the impact of our own food production methods and also the supply chains feeding Ireland. The uncertainty caused by the Ukraine war and related concerns about the security of supply make this a complex issue.
The second is how to respond to the impact on households. As with energy prices, Ireland is poorer due to the global rise in food commodity prices. Everyone cannot be compensated and so policy needs to focus on helping those who are most in need and to reflect the likelihood that higher food prices are here to stay.
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