The Electoral Commission is to deliver its highly anticipated constituency review next week as electoral boundaries are redrawn and the number of TDs are increased in line with a growing population
There has been fevered speculation among sitting TDs and potential candidates as to what the commission’s findings will mean for them as changes to the electoral map have the potential to make or break political careers.
Other parties with stable or shrinking support bases “might save one or two seats that they would otherwise lose” when there are more Dáil seats, she said. She added that the extra seats could help Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael “because incumbency matters a great deal in the Irish system... if you’re already a TD and the number of TDs increases, you have a better chance of holding on.”
Under the terms of the review set out in legislation, the commission is limited to creating three, four or five-seat constituencies and “the breaching of county boundaries shall be avoided as far as practicable”.Not being able to create six-seat constituencies also means there is likely to be more three-seaters.
Prof David Farrell of UCD's school of politics and international relations believes the review could help smaller parties and perhaps new parties.
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