Brussels votes are a distorted mirror, with anti-establishment sentiment to the fore. Can Sinn Féin wrestle it from longtime independents?
The Electoral Commission is a newly established state body set up to oversee elections in Ireland. Taking on a range of existing electoral functions, it will also be responsible for deciding on the number of TDs in the Dáil and the boundaries and size of each constituency and local election area. The first report from the Commission on constituency boundaries is due out at the end of August.
That said, these elections can be telling indicators of the general mood, or can give a party a much-needed morale boost. For the latter, the best example was the 2004 European Elections. Fine Gael had had a terrible election in 2002 and had seen its Dáil representation dip to 32. Against a backdrop of doubts about its future, in those European elections it won five of the 13 seats and cemented Enda Kenny’s position as leader.
Ireland is one of nine countries among the 27 members of the EU that have had a population increase since 2019. One scenario would leave Ireland gaining two seats. Fine Gael MEP Seán Kelly, a member of the committee that will decide on this matter, says the likelihood of this happening is “improbable”.
That source said they could not see sitting TDs being candidates as the party needed to consolidate its gains from 2020 in the Dáil. Its former South MEP Liadh Ní Riada has retired from public life. The possibility was raised by another Sinn Féin TD that some or all of its four senators – Munster-based Paul Gavan, Fintan Warfield, Belfast-based Niall Ó Donnghaile and Lynn Boylan – could be asked to stand at conventions.
Clare Daly , Barry Andrews and Ciarán Cuffe would be seen as vulnerable in Dublin, with only Frances Fitzgerald looking strong enough to survive.
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