Repeat of current coalition seems unlikely as combined support of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens now at 41%
Being the largest party in the Dáil, however, is not a guarantee of leading the next government. Assuming that Sinn Féin will not win an overall majority – and that is probably in the realms of fantasy – then McDonald will need to put together a working Dáil majority of at least 88 TDs if she is to lead a government.
With the Fine Gael leadership ruling it out and the wider party unlikely to permit a U-turn – especially, as seems currently likely, the election sees a further loss of seats for the party – that leaves Fianna Fáil.
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