Convergence between rich and poor countries is stalling and more challenges lie ahead
Shipping containers at the Port of Taicang in Taicang, Jiangsu Province, China. The fortunes of the Chinese economy, in particular its property market, represent one of the risks to the global economy. Photograph: Bloomberg
Start then with resilience. Here are three encouraging developments: the IMF has had no need to make any significant changes to its April forecasts; the financial turbulence of last spring – with the collapse of US regional banks and Credit Suisse – has abated; and, most important, there is growing evidence that inflation may be reduced to target without recessions. Thus, disinflation may prove more “immaculate” than I had expected.
There are more long-term difficulties ahead. One is climate: the world experienced its hottest September ever last month after surpassing the previous record by an “extraordinary” 0.5C. Moreover, if real interest rates are going to be permanently higher, as some believe, the conditions for long-term investment and growth will also be permanently worse, just when a huge surge in investment is needed to meet climate challenges and wider development goals.
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