Unemployment rate holds close to historic lows, but can it stay there?
It may seem a strange question — it would seem obvious that joblessness would have to increase as the economy winds down — but is thein a peculiar place these days, skewed as it is by multinationals moving intellectual property and other assets through the State?
Through all the recent doomsaying about the path of the economy, the unemployment rate has shown little impact, if any. Even as a lagging indicator — job cuts announced in September might not feed through to the rate for several months — it has been remarkably stable.The rate has hovered at just over 4 per cent since May 2022. Even excluding the pandemic, when the rate surged to close to 8 per cent, unemployment has trended down steadily in recent years.
Still, there may be clouds forming on the horizon. Jobs website Indeed.com has seen a drop in the number of jobs advertised on its Irish website. That by itself doesn’t indicate job cuts. And would a worker really care that much if their employer is not hiring at the breakneck speed of the last few years?
Perhaps more importantly, Indeed’s own data suggest wage growth in Ireland has now peaked. Wage growth slowed to 3.7 per cent year-on-year in August compared to 5.5 per cent in March, according to the firm’s senior economist Jack Kennedy. As inflation holds firm, that may be a bigger worry for many than finding a new job.
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