If Putin died tomorrow, there’s no chance a democratic peacenik would replace him. The war has reshaped Russian society in ways that make autocracy even more secure
The Prigozhin mutiny, meanwhile, showed us three things. The most active alternative to Putin was an even bigger thug. There was no viable political opposition able to take advantage of the rebellion. And Putin is still well able to liquidate anyone who threatens him.
Strange things happen in history but these prospects stretch wishful thinking into the realms of fantasy But the first aim demands a military miracle. And the second two require, in effect, a complete collapse of the Putin regime and its replacement by one that recognises international law and can persuade Russian society to hand over maybe a trillion euro of its taxes to reconstruct Ukraine.Strange things happen in history but these prospects stretch wishful thinking into the realms of fantasy. Everyone who believes in democracy and decency should want them to happen.
Russia, for its part, can’t destroy the West’s military industrial capacity and almost certainly can’t outproduce it.
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