At a stroke of a pen, the transfer of electoral divisions could rob sitting TDs of crucial votes
The three seater-constituency of Dublin-Rathdown – where all the TDs are Ministers and all are nervous of losing their seat to a Sinn Féin challenger – could gain an extra seat, though this would likely require a transfer of some areas from Dún Laoghaire. Alternatively, Dún Laoghaire could be enlarged to a five-seater from four currently.
More seats are expected to be added across the northside constituencies of Dublin Bay North, Fingal, Dublin West and Dublin Central but because Bay North and Fingal are already five-seaters, either substantial rejigging of boundaries will be required or a new constituency created, with Fingal split into two three-seaters. Political geographer Adrian Kavanagh has suggested the possible creation of a new constituency centred on the town of Swords.
These decisions will have a direct bearing on the chances of individual candidates. While their strength matters hugely, it’s hard to buck national trends in party support. Look at it this way: in a five-seater, a quota is 16.7 per cent; get 10 per cent of the vote and you’re in with a shout.
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