New constituency boundaries for Ireland
Wicklow: Will constituency reform change the quirk that all five TDs are based in one pocket of the county?
Sinn Féin’s only candidate in Cork North-Central, Thomas Gould, topped the poll in 2020 with 26.67 per cent of first preference votes and the party would be seen as favourite to gain a second come the next general election. Tánaiste Micheál Martin and Minister for Finance Michael McGrath would be seen as nailed-on to retain their seats, as well as Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney, the current Minister for Enterprise and Trade. However, there have been question marks over whether Martin will run again or may instead be eyeing up a job at the EU.No change for this three-seater, which is likely to see Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns in a dogfight to keep her seat.
A population of about 2,284 has shifted from Dublin North West, mostly from the Ward and Abbotstown. The variance of TD per-population is well below the norm here, though, at minus 7.17 per cent. Sinn Féin will likely run a second candidate with Réada Cronin, who secured 17 per cent of first preference votes three years ago. Fianna Fáil are expected to do likewise, with Frank O’Rourke narrowly losing out last time. His running mate, James Lawless, secured the third seat in the constituency, followed by Fine Gael’s Bernard Durkan. While Durkan has not yet said publicly whether he intends to run in the next general election, the long-standing TD will turn 79 next March.
So what does that mean? Claire Kerrane of Sinn Féin will be safe. That’s a certainty. Independent Michael Fitzmaurice lives in Glynsk so his home village will now be in Galway East but it’s unlikely he will shift constituency. He should also be safe. Denis Naughten’s retirement will open up an opportunity for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to seek the third seat, but don’t rule out the possibility of another independent candidate emerging.
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