Respondents see the ECB confirming by December that borrowing costs have peaked with first of three 2024 cuts in March
Whatever haggling takes place between ECB governing council members, Christine Lagarde’s immediate focus will remain on rates. Photographer: David Paul Morris/BloombergEconomists see the European Central Bank lifting interest rates one last time to tame inflation - they’re just not sure it will happen next week.
Economists’ expectations aren’t overly dissimilar to financial-market bets. Traders price a 40 per cent chance of a move next week and see a 70 per cent probability of one materialising by year-end.The results mirror the diverging views on the ECBs governing council as Frankfurt’s most forceful bout of monetary tightening draws to a close.
Whatever the decision, survey respondents say ECB president Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will settle on the appropriate monetary stance, with roughly four-fifths saying the ECB will neither stop raising rates too early nor tighten too far.
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